System and Strategic Enablement for EPEX’s 15-Minute Settlement

Preparing Your Systems and Strategy for the EPEX Transition

System and Strategic Enablement for EPEX’s 15-Minute Settlement

Align your ETRM Capabilities with EPEX Requirements

Effective October 1st, 2025, the European Power Exchange (EPEX) will transition from hourly to 15-minute market time unit (MTU), an operational shift impacting entities across Europe. Given EPEX’s central role across nearly every national market, this change mandates that all participants be equipped to operate at greater granularity. While current processes are built around hourly bidding and forecasting, the shift requires enhanced precision, faster responsiveness, and system updates to align with the new cadence.

Value Creed supports this transition on two fronts: system readiness and strategic enablement. We help clients reconfigure their ETRM platforms for 15-minute granularity and advise on how to leverage this shift for improved forecasting, pricing accuracy, and operational efficiency. Below mentioned are the key areas likely to be impacted:

Trade Migration

Market Data Ingestion and Mapping

Bidding Strategy Changes

P&L and Risk Analytics Adaptation

Contract & Settlement Logic

Scheduling System Adaptation

Navigating the Hidden Gaps in 15 Minute Readiness

While migrating to 15-minute granularity is a major milestone, the true complexity often emerges post go-live. Below are the key operational, technical, and commercial challenges firms must address to ensure sustained performance and value capture:

Data Model and Storage Pressures

Handling increased time intervals places significant strain on databases and time series systems. Legacy data models designed for hourly resolution may require redesign to support efficient 15-minute querying and analytics.

Forecasting Stack Obsolescence

Hourly models for price, generation, and consumption become inadequate. Accurate 15-minute bidding requires model retraining, feature set upgrades, and data re-engineering.

Contract and PPA Settlement Complexity

Contracts indexed to hourly prices must be updated to reflect 15-minute intervals. Failure to adjust will lead to settlement errors and commercial misalignments.

P&L and Valuation Framework Gaps

Reports built on hourly granularity risk underestimating exposure. Aggregated views may mask volatility and distort hedge effectiveness.

Report and Dashboard Performance Issues

Hard-coded time aggregations cause latency and errors. Dashboards may become cluttered or unusable with 96 data points per day.

Curve Management and Historical Realignment

Historical curves must be interpolated to 15-minute MTUs. Misaligned data can lead to inaccuracies in backtesting and reconciliation issues.

Scheduling and Nominations Misalignments

Without synchronized valuation data, forecasted vs. nominated volumes may diverge, increasing manual adjustments and operational risk.

Limited Team Readiness

Teams may lack training to interpret 15-minute data. Without clear ownership, adoption of new processes can lag.

Getting Ahead of EPEX Market Changes with the Right Approach

Value Creed offers a structured, phased approach that combines technical execution with strategic guidance. Our methodology ensures systems are not only compliant but also optimized to capture new opportunities.

The engagement begins with a focused evaluation of your ETRM and data landscape to determine exposure to 15-minute MTU changes. The objective is to surface key gaps and provide a low-risk, actionable readiness path.

Using proven accelerators, our team develops a tailored plan aligned to your ETRM landscape to enable a seamless and controlled transition. Execution is structured to reduce risk and minimize business disruption.

After go-live, our experts focus on stabilizing operations and embedding the new cadence into your processes. The goal is to ensure full adoption, reduce operational risk, and build long-term capability

Opportunities Enabled by the Shift to 15-Minute Markets

Once foundational readiness is in place, firms can unlock significant strategic and operational gains from the transition.

Enhanced Forecast Accuracy & Competitive Bidding

Firms can improve bid precision during volatile intervals. Forecasts can be aligned more closely with real-time asset performance.

Richer Risk Metrics
& Position Transparency

VaR and PnL calculations can be performed at 15-minute resolution. Intraday volatility and risk exposure become more visible.

Improved Product Design for PPAs & Flexibility Assets

Contracts can be tailored to reflect granular generation patterns. Flexibility from storage and hybrid assets can be better monetized.

Data-Driven Operational Decision Making

Intraday balancing and hedging decisions can be executed faster. Machine learning and AI can enhance forecasting and anomaly detection.

Foundation for Strategic Differentiation

Advanced data infrastructure enables faster automation. Firms can deliver more dynamic and customized client offerings.

Drive Readiness for Market Transformation

As 15-minute markets reshape trading dynamics, Value Creed enables firms to move beyond compliance and unlock competitive edge. From system readiness to data strategy and operational optimization, our experts deliver the end-to-end support needed to navigate complexity with confidence. With deep ETRM expertise, proven frameworks, and a Run-Operate-Transform model, we help clients capitalize on intraday volatility, streamline decision-making, and future-proof their trading operations.

Recommended Resources

Decoding the EPEX SPOT Day-Ahead Market Shift

What the EPEX Shift to 15 minutes MTU Means for Your Business

A Deep Dive into Bloomberg Integration with Value Creed

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